A graphic representation of a nearby asteroid. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4.3% possibility of colliding with the moon, according to data from February 2026. These probabilities are projected to remain consistent until the celestial object draws nearer in 2028.(Image credit: Getty Images)
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The asteroid 2024 YR4, equivalent to the size of a building, carries a slim chance of striking the moon in 2032 — and a fresh study anticipates it might also present a stunning display for observers on Earth by generating a multitude of impact flashes as well as intense meteor showers.
The celestial body — approximately 200 feet (60 meters) across, roughly the proportions of a 15-floor building — was identified on December 27, 2024. It briefly garnered attention in February 2025, when astronomers figured it possessed the greatest likelihood on record of impacting Earth among asteroids of comparable or greater scale. Even though this probability peaked at around 3.1%, more accurate assessments of the asteroid’s path ruled out any possibility of the object striking Earth during its closely approaching pass on December 22, 2032.
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This likelihood of an impact piqued the interest of Yifei Jiao, a postdoctoral scholar at the University of California, Santa Cruz. He and his associates recognized that this was “an unusual ‘natural study’: a predictable minor-body impact where the signatures could yield valuable science and be practically meaningful,” he conveyed to Live Science via email. Consequently, the researchers aimed to evaluate all conceivable results, according to his statement.
10,000 collisions
To accomplish this, the scientists constructed computational representations of the solar system that incorporated the asteroid, all of the planets, Earth’s satellite and the sun — and replicated 2024 YR4’s course as it zipped through the inner solar system.
By adjusting the space object’s path, the group developed 10,000 of these replications, with which they outlined the most probable zones of impact on the lunar surface. Utilizing a separate sequence of more detailed simulations, the scientists also reproduced the actual impact event across a duration of 500 seconds. The team modeled the spectrum of potential scenarios for the impact remains, monitoring the routes of the objects escaping lunar gravity.
The conclusions from their simulations, found on the arXiv preprint platform but yet to undergo formal peer evaluation, propose the asteroid will potentially strike the moon at some location across an approximate 1,900-mile-long (3,000 kilometers) area. The anticipated collision area lies just to the north of the Tycho crater on the moon. When viewed from Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, this corresponds to the lower half of the moon (and vice versa when viewed from the Southern Hemisphere), according to The Planetary Society.
The possible course across which asteroid 2024 YR4 could impact the moon is emphasized with a range of colors. However, only a limited section of this is found inside the area that will lack lighting on the expected day of impact (Dec. 22, 2032). A blast bright as Venus
More notably, the impact would create a star-like burst of light between magnitudes -2.5 and -3 — roughly comparable in brightness to Venus during nighttime. This flash might persist for around 200 to 300 seconds (three to five minutes), even though it should be distinctly observable for a duration of no less than 10 seconds, “as the luminosity of the flash significantly exceeds the background illumination, making it easily discernible,” expressed lead author Yifan He, a researcher at Tsinghua University located in China, in an email to Live Science.
Should a collision occur, the predicted moment of impact would be 10:19 a.m. EST (15:19 UTC) — suggesting the flash would be seen in regions worldwide where the moon has ascended. This makes East Asia, Oceania, Hawaii, and western North America ideal spots for spotting the occurrence.
There is, however, an obstacle: on the foreseen day of impact, 70% of the moon will be illuminated. Visual observers could witness the impact flash with their eyes alone provided the asteroid collides in the moon’s unlit region. He and Yixuan Wu, a research fellow at Tsinghua University and the study’s second author, approximate that the chances of this event occurring — if asteroid 2024 YR4 does make contact with the moon — is a mere 2.85%.
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—We could obliterate ‘city killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 ahead of it impacting the moon — if rapid action is taken, a recent investigation cautions
—’Potentially hazardous’ asteroid 2024 YR4 served as Earth’s inaugural genuine planetary defense test
—’City killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 may bombard Earth with ‘bullet-resembling’ meteors if it crashes into the moon in 2032
Regardless, the flash may still be detected using beginner telescopes, irrespective of where the impact takes place. Additional displays will be possible, as an impact will dislodge a significant quantity of lunar rocks, which would in turn fall on the moon’s face, potentially leading to several thousand individual flashes. The flashes resulting from these secondary impacts won’t equal the intensity of the principal flash and are likely to be harder to recognize without specialized tools.
Moreover, the research projects up to 220 million pounds (100 million kilograms) of lunar rocks will be thrown toward Earth because of the impact. According to Wu, this is enough material to yield what she terms “super meteor storms”, which are potent meteor showers that would come two to 100 days after the impact. 2024 YR4’s possible moon impact remains reasonably ambiguous, but Wu is enthusiastic about what could follow. “Should this transpire, it will represent a noteworthy accomplishment for the science of planets, transforming the Earth-Moon configuration into a vast setting for confirming our insights on asteroid impacts,” she declared to Live Science via email.
IN CONTEXT
IN CONTEXTBrandon SpecktorSpace and Physics editor
Although Earth is spared from the path of 2024 YR4, examining the asteroid provides some of the most worthwhile planetary protection practice we’ve undergone. Upon the initial discovery of the asteroid and its status as a possible threat, telescopes across the world concentrated on tracking it. This included the James Webb Space Telescope, even allocating a small portion of its limited unscheduled time to view it.
Such expedited and extensive observations refined the measurement of the asteroid’s dimension and trajectory. The observations subsequently verified that Earth would not be at risk. While we may not always possess similar fortune, the added practice of tracking asteroids in proximity to Earth increases our readiness in the event that an authentic space-based hazard arises.
Article Sources
He, Y., Wu, Y., Jiao, Y., Dai, W., Liu, X., Cheng, B., & Baoyin, H. (2026). Observation timelines for the potential lunar impact of asteroid 2024 YR4. arXiv (Cornell University). https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2601.10666
Deepa JainLive Science contributor
Deepa Jain is an independent science journalist residing in Bengaluru, India. Her education consists of a master’s degree in biology from the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, and an almost finished bachelor’s degree in archaeology from the University of Leicester, UK. She finds pleasure in creating content about space science, the environment, and archaeology.
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