President Xi Jinping announced China's new plans to combat climate change at a UN summit on September 24, pledging to cut emissions by 10% from their peak by 2035. (Image credit: Pool/Getty Images)
A few years ago, one of us (Miles Allen) asked a Chinese delegate at a climate conference why Beijing had chosen “carbon neutrality” as its 2060 target rather than “climate neutrality” or “net zero,” both of which were more fashionable terms at the time.
Her answer: “Because we know what it means.”
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To be fair, lofty goals have played a role in shaping climate debates about what's possible: there's always the argument that it's better to aim for the moon and miss than to aim for a ditch and end up in it.
But the climate crisis requires more than just aspirations. We need concrete, realistic plans.
This is precisely what makes China's promise so significant: Beijing only promises what it plans to deliver. Having pledged to peak emissions this decade, just 50 years after the start of serious industrialization, it appears poised to achieve it. And, along the way, to become a global leader in wind power, solar energy, and electric vehicles.
Meanwhile, in the scientific literature…
In late August, an article appeared in the journal Nature Communications that sheds light on the context of China's announcement and should have attracted much more attention.
In it, climate scientists Junting Zhong and co-authors describe what they call a “reality-consistent scenario.” This means emissions trends over the next century that are consistent with current emissions levels and countries' short-term commitments.
The article is provocatively titled “A Plausible Global Emissions Scenario for 2°C Warming Consistent with a Zero-Emissions China” (provocative because it implies that some other scenarios are, shall we say, less plausible).
According to their scenario, global carbon dioxide emissions will peak this decade and reach net zero by 2070, accompanied by immediate, sustained, but moderate reductions in methane and other greenhouse gas emissions. In response, global warming is expected to peak at just over 2°C by the end of this century and then fall below 2°C early next century.
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Zhong and his colleagues, crucially, highlight China's contribution. According to their scenario, the country's carbon dioxide emissions will peak in the next few years and then, through a sustained decline, drop to near zero by 2060. Methane emissions will begin to decline immediately.
China is the world's largest source of methane, a potent but short-lived greenhouse gas. Much of it comes from coal mines.
There's much to discuss regarding the relationship between this scenario and China's latest emissions reduction commitment. How much of this 7-10% reduction in all greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 will come from the much-desired reduction in methane emissions? Separating the contributions of long-lived (CO₂) and short-lived (e.g., methane) greenhouse gases would be helpful in understanding the implications of China's commitments for global temperature.
Zhong and his colleagues believe that land-use change (such as reforestation) plays only a minimal role in China's long-term climate change plan. So why does Beijing's new commitment place so much emphasis on tree planting? Is this a temporary measure or the beginning of more aggressive land-based carbon removal?
While renewable energy plays a central role in China's strategy, the country will also need to store captured carbon (at power plants and factories) on a massive scale. The question, perhaps, is how China plans to achieve all this.
This is why the phrase “strive for the best” in President Xi Jinping's statement is so important. The world is keen to see China exceed its promises.
Why is there silence?
But perhaps the most remarkable thing about this whole story is how little discussion there has been of Zhong and his colleagues' work. It was certainly timely: it came out just as China was preparing its commitment, it was published in a leading global scientific journal, and one of the co-authors holds a prominent position within the IPCC. Yet, despite all this, it received virtually no attention online.
Perhaps most climate experts were too busy reacting to a completely different document: a “critical review” commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy of the impact of greenhouse gases on the U.S. climate.
Whether you agreed with their conclusions or not, Zhong and his team's work was rigorous, transparent, and peer-reviewed. The American review fell short of these standards and has already been widely criticized as flawed. Nevertheless, it remained the focus of media attention and commentary for weeks.
While the world's second-largest emitter debated a dubious dossier, a carefully presented and comprehensive scenario that has direct implications for the climate policies of the world's largest emitter went virtually unnoticed.
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This is a missed opportunity. China's goals aren't just slogans or aspirations; they're statements of intent based on what the country believes it can achieve. And wherever China goes, others will follow. Analysis like Zhong and his colleagues' helps us understand both China's role and the world's chances of keeping warming below 2°C.
That's why President Xi's call to “do better” applies not only to countries but also to scientists, commentators, and climate policy experts. Don't be distracted by the usual suspects flooding this space.
This edited article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
TOPICS China
Miles Allen, Head of the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics at the University of Oxford
Miles Allen is Head of the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics at the University of Oxford and Professor of Geosystems Science in the School of Geography and the Environment. His research focuses on the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on climate change, the risks of extreme weather events, and their long-term implications for climate forecasts. A seasoned member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he developed methods for linking human activity to specific weather events and founded Climateprediction.net, the world's largest distributed climate modeling project.
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