In which locations do the longest-living Europeans reside?(Image credit: Elena Pejchinova via Getty Images)
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For more than 15 decades, the average number of years a person lives has steadily gone up in the wealthiest nations. Remarkable gains in lifespan have been noted in the 20th Century, aligning with the reduction in communicable diseases and progress in heart health treatments.
Yet, for a handful of years currently, specialists have been pondering one issue: when will this refined system be used to its fullest extent? In a number of Western countries, gains in longevity have turned out to be so minimal, they are practically nonexistent.
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Depending entirely on national figures cannot be a definitive factor. Behind an average national lifetime lies extremely varied facts based on particular areas. Our research findings, recently shared through Nature Communications, revealed this. Evaluating data gathered between 1992 and 2019, it focuses on 450 regions in western Europe, incorporating approximately 400 million individuals.
A comprehensive European research study
To finalize our research project, we gathered mortality rates and population information from government statistics organizations in 13 Western European countries such as Spain, Denmark, Portugal and Switzerland.
At first, we standardized the original information, a step that proved essential given the regions differed in area and the details offered varied in depth across the countries.
Following this, we figured out the yearly increase in average age at the time of birth for each area between 1992 and 2019, a statistic which shows rates of death across all age groups. Developed mathematical models enabled us to highlight the key underlying patterns, despite brief variations attributed to the hot spell in 2003, or virulent, periodic outbreaks of influenza between 2014 and 2015, as an example. Our data ends in 2019, given that the coronavirus pandemic’s long-term influence on the patterns or if it was confined to 2020-2022 is still unclear.
The results we found give us an unmatched overview of regional lifespan changes across Europe over a nearly three-decade period, from which we deduce three findings.
First finding: The potential for human life expectancy hasn’t been maxed out
The foremost message coming from the study states that the furthest limits of human lifespan still haven’t been achieved. If we direct our attention to champion areas regarding life expectancy (highlighted in blue on the following chart), there’s no sign suggesting a slowdown of progress.
Trends in average life duration in front-running and trailing areas in Western Europe, from 1992 to 2019. The red line (and blue, respectively) shows the average life expectancy at the time of birth of regions contained within the top decile (and the bottom, respectively) of the distribution. The average of all 450 regions is indicated through the black line. The minimum and maximum numbers are indicated by specific symbols relating to the regions involved.
These areas keep revealing about a two-and-a-half month increase in life expectancy annually for males, and roughly a one-and-a-half month increase in life expectancy each year for females, at a comparable pace to what was seen in previous decades. Regions located in Northern Italy, Switzerland and various Spanish provinces were included in 2019.
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When it comes to France, Paris, with the surrounding Hauts-de-Seine or Yvelines locations (applying to both men and women), came up alongside the Anjou region and districts bordering Switzerland (relevant to women exclusively). Life expectancy reached 83 for men, and 87 for women in 2019.
Put simply, despite recurrent reservations, there’s nothing suggesting at the moment that increases in lifespan have topped out; making life expectancy longer is feasible. This is a key discovery that pushes back against widely-held, pessimistic assertions: there’s leeway for advancement.
Second finding: varied conditions regionally since the mid-2000s
The outlook seems grimmer when it comes to areas that have “lagging” rates of life expectancy, as revealed by the red sections in the chart. These regions experienced significant rises in life expectancy through the 90s and at the beginning of the 2000s. This advancement took place faster here in comparison to anywhere else, resulting in a convergence across the European regions in life expectancy.
That golden period, marked by prompt increases in life expectancy across Europe and a decline in regional inequalities, drew to a close near 2005. In the most problematic areas, whether East Germany, Wallonia within Belgium or specified sections of the United Kingdom, improvements in lifespan have lessened substantially, almost reaching a standstill. No districts in France were included among those for females, though some in the Hauts-de-France were included for males.
Ultimately, European life expectancy is split into front-running areas that keep developing on one side, and regions that are lagging on the other side, in which the drive is drying up and is even turning around. There’s an observable regional contrast that stands in opposition to the momentum of catching up from the 90s.
Third finding: the crucial function of death rates in the 55-74 age bracket
How can this kind of change be explained? Aside from life expectancy in specific age categories, we tried to obtain a better understanding of this extraordinary shift by analyzing how death rates have changed for each age demographic.
It’s fair to say that the regional variation cannot be explained through an increase in deaths of children (that has remained very low) or an increase in deaths for individuals over 75 (in which a slowdown continues across the board). The variation mainly arises from deaths around 65 years of age.
In the 90s, this indicated a steep drop, thanks to access to cardiovascular procedures and improvements in behaviors that minimize risks. However, this rise has declined since the 2000s. In a few areas within the last several years, the likelihood of death between 55 and 74 years has been going up, as revealed within the maps displayed below.
Yearly percentage differences in the chances of passing away between 55 and 74 years among men (left) and women (right) across 450 districts in Western Europe from 2018-2019.
This particularly applies to women residing on France’s Mediterranean coasts (as indicated in light pink). Most parts of Germany exhibit this trend too. Nevertheless, these ages that sit in the middle are essential in the advancement of life expectancy, simply because a substantial amount of deaths take place at this point. A pause or a rapid increase in the death rate between ages 55 and 74 is enough to throw off the general pattern.
Our study does not permit us to accurately find the specific factors that explain this concerning development, though present documentation hands us a few potential reasons that need to be scientifically checked in the future. These involve behaviors that entail risks, most notably cigarette use, drinking alcohol and poor eating habits, or not enough movement, all elements that come into play at these ages.
It should be added that the economic crisis in 2008 amplified regional differences around Europe. The well-being of populations in some regions diminished from lasting impacts, while others marked further advancement alongside a concentration of highly trained jobs. Such factors remind us lifespan does not depend solely on progress in medicine; it may also be attributed to social and economic aspects.
What comes next?
Our report communicates a dual message. It’s true that it’s feasible to stretch out life expectancy. This is demonstrated through Europe’s regional leaders as they keep showing consistent expansion without any indication of reaching a high point. However, this advancement doesn’t go for everyone. For fifteen years, sections of Europe have been falling behind, largely as a result of escalating deaths around 65 years in age.
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The future of human lifespan appears to depend less on an assumed biological maximum and more on our collective capability to close gaps in life expectancy. Based on present patterns, we could well think of Europe forming a tiered framework, splitting off a small number of districts that keep