Wildfire smoke-related deaths in the US could reach 70,000 a year by 2050 due to climate change, according to a study.

Increased wildfires caused by climate change could lead to 30,000 more smoke-related deaths per year in the U.S. by 2050 than today's death rate. (Photo: James Andrews/Getty Images)

-4ef1-4329-93e9-4bc2c6298a96″> By 2050, deaths from wildfire smoke exposure could cost the US economy more than all other climate-related damages combined, according to a new study.

Scientists estimate that wildfire smoke pollution caused 41,380 excess deaths per year between 2011 and 2020, and that this number could increase by more than 70% to 71,420 over the next 25 years due to the effects of climate change.

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According to Stanford University's School of Sustainable Development, this amount exceeds the estimated cost of all other types of climate change damage combined, including impacts such as agricultural losses, storm damage, and temperature-related mortality.

“Everyone understands that wildfire intensity and exposure to smoke from them are rapidly changing,” said senior study author Marshall Burke, a professor of environmental social science at Stanford University, in a statement. “Unfortunately, this has become a reality for residents of the West Coast over the past decade and for residents of the East Coast over the past few years. Our paper provides data showing how this changing exposure affects health, both now and in the future, as the climate warms.”

Wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense due to global warming, as rising temperatures reduce soil moisture and dry out vegetation, making them more susceptible to fire and igniting easily from flying embers. According to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, once a wildfire starts, the combination of dry vegetation and warm air facilitates its spread and makes extinguishing it more difficult.

Climate change and wildfires form a feedback loop: an increase in wildfires leads to increased warming due to greenhouse gases released by the burning of organic matter, and further warming, in turn, triggers new wildfires. However, wildfires also release other pollutants into the atmosphere, including tiny particles of dust and soot, which can enter the lungs and bloodstream.

These particles, known as PM2.5, are approximately 28 times smaller than the thickness of a human hair and can linger on the mucous membranes of the mouth, nose, and eyes. In the short term, this can cause irritation, coughing, burning, and exacerbation of skin conditions, as previously reported by Live Science.

Inhaling these particles into the lungs can exacerbate existing respiratory conditions such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). And if the particles enter the bloodstream, they can irritate the heart, increasing the risk of heart attack and coronary artery disease.

To estimate the human and economic costs associated with exposure to wildfire smoke, the authors of a new study analyzed county-level mortality data across the United States from 2006 to 2019. They combined this data with measurements of ground-level smoke and wind emissions, using machine learning to model the movement of PM2.5 from wildfires across North America.