Firefighters continue to battle wildfires in Pacific Palisades, California, on January 7. (Photo credit: David Swanson/AFP via Getty Images)
Global warming in 2024 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels for the first time, according to new data. That makes 2024 the hottest year on record.
The planet's average temperature in 2024 will be about 2.9 F (1.6 C) above pre-industrial levels as greenhouse gas emissions reach record levels, the European Commission's Copernicus Climate Service reports.
The impacts of climate change and the human suffering it causes are already being felt – in the form of unprecedented heatwaves, hurricanes, droughts, floods and wildfires seen around the world.
“We are currently on the brink of exceeding the 1.5ºC threshold set by the Paris Agreement, with the average over the last two years already exceeding that,” said Samantha Burgess, climate strategy manager at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in a commentary. “These high global temperatures, combined with record levels of atmospheric water vapour in 2024, have led to unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall, causing suffering for millions of people.”
Global warming of 2 C (3.6 F) is considered an important limit because exceeding this level significantly increases the likelihood of catastrophic and irreversible climate change. This includes the collapse of large parts of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, extreme heat waves, severe droughts, water shortages, and severe weather conditions over large areas of the planet.
Nearly 200 countries have agreed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C or below under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Because that target is an average over more than two decades, the current news does not mean the agreement is ineffective, but it does make achieving the target highly uncertain.
“There is an extremely high probability that we will exceed the long-term average of 1.5 degrees Celsius and the threshold set by the Paris Agreement,” Burgess told a news conference on Thursday (January 9).
Last year's record temperatures can be partly attributed to El Niño, a nine- to 12-month climate cycle that causes waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to warm more than usual, affecting global weather patterns.
However, temperatures have not returned to previous averages since El Niño ended in April 2024, sparking debate among scientists about whether different weather patterns, reduced pollution from shipping, or reduced cloud cover could be contributing to the apparent acceleration of global warming.
“Not every year will set new records, but the long-term trend is clear,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. “We’re already seeing impacts in the form of heavy rainfall, heat waves, and increased flood risk, which will continue to worsen as long as emissions continue to occur.”
It’s too early to say what this will mean for 2025. Global sea surface temperatures, which hit record highs in 2024, now appear to be cooling to more normal levels. And La Niña, the cooler equivalent of El Niño, has developed in the equatorial Pacific, which should cool temperatures further.
“All international global temperature data sets show that 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “
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