NASA says the chances of an asteroid about 200 feet in diameter hitting the Moon have increased slightly.
Based on the latest data collected, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has refined the projected trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4 and increased the likelihood of its impact with the Moon on December 22, 2032, by 4.3%.
Previously, the probability was 3.8%.
The space object is too far from Earth to be detected by ground-based telescopes, but the James Webb Space Telescope, which orbits the sun, was able to obtain new data on it earlier this month before it disappeared from view. It was this opportunity that provided the information that led to the revised forecast.
Because of YR4's orbit around the Sun, NASA will not be able to observe it again until it returns to the Sun in 2028.
If an asteroid were to hit the moon, it could create a crater about 3,200 feet across and release 6.5 megatons of energy, according to a research paper published in the Journal of the American Astronomical Society on Monday.
Such an impact could eject up to 220 million pounds of lunar material, and up to 10% of that material could fall to Earth within a few days, so as the article points out, “meteorites are unlikely, although not impossible,” but it would create an “attractive” meteor shower.
However, any parts of the Moon that might be headed toward Earth could also increase the amount of meteorites that satellites in Earth orbit will be exposed to for as long as a decade.
Sourse: www.upi.com
