NASA said new information has reduced the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth to 1.5%.
In a blog post Wednesday, NASA said it expects the chance of a collision “to continue to increase as more observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 are made in the coming days and weeks,” after the agency estimated the chance at 3.1% on Tuesday.
“For the impact probability to be zero, Earth would need to be outside the range of potential locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032,” NASA said.
On February 15, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated the chance of a collision with an asteroid between 130 and 300 feet in diameter at 1.6%.
The asteroid's trajectory suggests a low probability of its collision with Earth in late 2032.
NASA said it continues to monitor the asteroid to gather enough information “so our planetary defense experts can determine future risks to Earth.”
“Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a very low probability of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032,” NASA’s asteroid FAQ says. “As additional observations accumulate and are integrated into orbital calculations, this probability will likely decrease to zero. The impact probability of this asteroid will be re-evaluated as astronomers continue to track it.”
If an asteroid the size of 2024 YR4 does hit Earth, NASA noted, “The damage caused by an impacting asteroid depends largely on the exact size and composition of the asteroid. The exact size of 2024 YR4 is still uncertain, but a likely scenario for its size is an airburst. If the asteroid were to enter the atmosphere over the ocean, models show that airbursts of objects this size are unlikely to cause a significant tsunami, whether over the open ocean or closer to shore.”
If an asteroid about 300 feet in diameter were to hit a populated area, “which is much less likely, it could cause more severe damage, potentially destroying residential buildings throughout the city and blowing out windows in larger areas,” according to NASA.
NASA said the chance of an asteroid hitting the Moon is currently 0.8%.
Sourse: www.upi.com
