Latest simulations indicate that no spacecraft’s well-being will be completely assured when the subsequent solar tempest of Carrington intensity impacts our world.(Image credit: ESA/NASA–T. Pesquet)
Alarming fresh simulations illustrate that a solar flare akin to the notable Carrington Event could possibly obliterate each and every satellite circling our globe, positioning us in a vulnerable and costly scenario. Professionals state that a solar disturbance of such strength is inescapable and is guaranteed to strike Earth eventually.
On September 1, 1859, British astronomer Richard Carrington noticed a radiant burst of light emerging from a colossal sunspot, approximately the dimension of Jupiter. He bore witness to the most potent solar emission in documented history, which was then followed by a significant disruption to the geomagnetic sphere of Earth, identified as a geomagnetic disturbance, which persisted for almost a week and ornamented the atmosphere with extensive auroras.
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These simulations were part of a theoretical exercise conducted by experts from different ESA sections at the European Space Operations Center situated in Darmstadt, Germany. These simulations were in preparation for the forthcoming launch of ESA’s Sentinel-1D radio imagery satellite, which is presently slated for November 4.
In this hypothetical situation, an X45 graded solar flare — approximately fivefold more intense than the strongest flare of the current solar period — abruptly detonates from the sun, barraging Earth with a flood of severe radiation without prior warning. Roughly 15 hours later, subsequent to another radiation burst, an enormous cloud of rapid-moving plasma, referred to as a coronal mass ejection (CME), impacts our world at speeds surpassing 4.4 million mph (7.1 million km/h), instigating a geomagnetic disturbance akin to the Carrington incident.
Richard Carrington’s sketch of the “monster” sunspot from 1859 showed that the shadowy area was the dimensions of Jupiter. In this depiction, his image has been layered on a recent photograph of the solar surface.
While the analysts’ response to this event was mainly centered on methods to shield Sentinel-1D, the simulations further portrayed how the complete collection of circling spacecraft internationally would cope in a similar situation.
“The extensive surge of energy released by the sun may inflict damage to all our orbiting satellites,” Jorge Amaya, ESA’s space weather modeling coordinator , expressed in a release. “Satellites within lower orbits typically benefit from enhanced protection via our planet’s atmosphere and geomagnetic field against cosmic hazards, yet an outburst equivalent to the Carrington Event would endanger every spacecraft.”
Throughout the exercise, spacecraft encountered three main dangers. Initially, the preliminary wave of radiation emitted by the solar flare, which could permanently or temporarily incapacitate any spacecraft positioned too distantly from Earth’s internal geomagnetic field. Next, a successive radiation burst which scrambled navigation equipment, escalating the probability of collisions. Lastly, the CME, which triggered the expansion of the upper atmosphere outward as it absorbed energy from the solar disturbance.
This atmospheric expansion constitutes arguably the most perilous element of this threefold menace, since it could elevate satellites’ drag by an increase of 400%, dragging spacecraft down to Earth, where they risk burning during atmospheric reentry or crashing onto the planetary surface.
Solar flares discharge nearly light-speed emissions of intense radiation that strike satellites instantly. The ultraviolet wavelength record demonstrates the radiation’s impact on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite soon after a solar emission in 2003.
We underwent a minor insight into the potential impact of such a situation throughout the unprecedented geomagnetic turbulence of May 2024, which served as the strongest of its category spanning 21 years and prompted extensive aurora appearances.
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Apart from knocking a handful of satellites from low-Earth orbit, the 2024 turbulence substantially impaired GPS functionalities, resulting in misfunctioning agricultural equipment which totalled approximately $500 million in losses for U.S. farmers.
Nonetheless, such figures barely scratch the surface compared to the costs incurred by a Carrington-scale turbulence. A 2013 examination assessing the potential impact of such an occurrence on North American power supply systems unveiled that the U.S. might sustain damages amounting to $2.6 trillion, whilst The Planetary Society indicated that the actual global cost is “beyond our capacity to comprehend.”
“When” not “if”
Theoretical exercises, as mentioned, are crucial owing to the likelihood that an additional Carrington-scale disturbance may not be far away.
“The foremost implication is that this is not about if this shall occur, but a matter of when,” Gustavo Baldo Carvalho, a spacecraft procedures specialist who governed the Sentinel-1D simulations, stated in the release.
Theoretical exercises are essential in educating experts in reacting during the worst-case scenario.
Specialists suggest that a Carrington-scale disturbance happens around every 500 years on average, estimating the probability of an event taking place this century at nearly 12%.
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Whereas the latest exercise provides additional substantiation of our current incapacity to manage this particular kind of acute situation, investigators wish that by consistently preparing for this probability, we will grow more proficient in dealing with it.
“Replicating the repercussions of an event of this nature mirrors forecasting the implications of a pandemic,” Amaya commented. “We will genuinely feel its consequences within society exclusively following the event, so we require readiness and contingency plans to respond without delay.”
Nonetheless, the more delayed the arrival of the ensuing megastorm, the higher the cost becomes, seeing that the accumulation of satellites surrounding our planet is projected to augment by at least tenfold by 2050.
TOPICSSolar flare
Harry BakerSocial Links NavigationSenior Staff Writer
Harry is a senior writer for Live Science, located in the U.K. He majored in marine biology at the University of Exeter before gaining training to be a journalist. He reports across numerous subjects which include cosmic exploration, planetary science, cosmic weather, climate change, creature behavior and paleontology. His subsequent piece concerning the solar maximum was awarded “best cosmic post” at the 2024 Aerospace Media Awards and ranked as a “top news” finalist by the NCTJ Awards for Excellence in 2023. He also authors Live Science’s Earth from space weekly series.
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