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A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launching with a payload of satellites in June 2024.(Image credit: PATRICK T. FALLON via Getty Images)Share this article 0Join the conversationFollow usAdd us as a preferred source on GoogleSubscribe to our newsletter
An abandoned piece of a SpaceX rocket, carelessly left drifting in space, is expected to impact the moon this summer, according to a new assessment.
The errant rocket poses no threat to the moon or any operational spacecraft, the report emphasizes. However, the collision — anticipated to take place on August 5th near the boundary of the moon’s near and far sides — might hold “minor scientific interest” should it generate a new crater that can be subsequently examined.
What’s happening on the moon?
The object in question is the 45-foot-tall (13.8 meters) upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket that was launched in early 2025 and has since been orbiting the Earth-moon system. The rocket delivered two spacecraft to the moon: the Blue Ghost lander, developed by the private firm Firefly Aerospace, which successfully landed on the moon in March 2025; and the Hakuto-R lander, developed by the Japanese company ispace, which lost communication with Earth and made a crash landing on the moon later that June.
According to Gray, various asteroid observation programs detected the rocket’s spent upper stage over a thousand times in the past year as it orbited Earth, maintaining a distance roughly consistent with that of the moon. Utilizing this data, Gray employed his software to predict with high confidence the probable time and location of the impending impact: around 2:44 a.m. EDT on August 5th, close to a crater named Einstein on the edge of the moon’s Earth-facing hemisphere.
The rocket debris is anticipated to land in or near the moon’s Einstein crater, close to the boundary between the moon’s side facing Earth and its far side.
(Image credit: Bill Gray)
“The movement of space junk is largely quite predictable; it simply responds to the gravitational pull of the Earth, moon, sun, and planets,” Gray elaborated. He noted that solar radiation pressure might cause minor deviations, but it’s unlikely to significantly alter the timing or location of the impact.
Regrettably, any impact flash from the event will likely be too dim to be observed from Earth, even with a powerful telescope. Any scientific merit will stem from the examination of the fresh crater produced by the debris.
A growing trend?
This is not the first instance of Gray forecasting a lunar rocket collision. In 2022, he accurately predicted that a used rocket component would strike the moon on March 4th, pinpointing the time of impact within a few seconds and the location within a few miles. (Gray initially identified the spent rocket as a Falcon 9 upper stage; it was later determined to be a Chinese rocket booster.)
Gray’s recent report has not undergone peer review in a formal journal, but he did solicit input from several astronomers on his findings. He estimates the debris will strike the moon at approximately 5,400 mph (8,700 km/h), which is roughly seven times the speed of sound on Earth.
A map of the moon indicating the predicted impact site on August 5, 2026.
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Although no human infrastructure currently exists on the moon that could be damaged by the incoming debris, this situation may change in the coming years. Both the United States and China intend to increase the frequency of lunar missions, with the U.S. aiming for annual missions starting with Artemis IV and V as early as 2028. China, meanwhile, plans to land its first astronauts on the moon by 2030.
With growing international interest in establishing permanent bases near the lunar south pole, the region could soon become congested with cargo, personnel, and spacecraft. Consequently, it will become increasingly vital for space agencies and commercial entities to manage the long-term risks associated with space debris by directing spent rocket stages into solar orbit, rather than Earth or lunar orbit.
How quickly can you name all 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the moon? Test your knowledge with our moon landing quiz!
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