The Martian predicts human colonies on Mars by 2035. How close are we to that?

The Martian's lead character Mark Watney reflects on his ordeal. (Image credit: 20th Century Fox)

Andy Weir’s best-selling book The Martian predicts that by 2035, NASA will have landed three humans on Mars, improved return systems, and collaborated with the China National Space Administration. It’s been 10 years since the Hollywood adaptation was released in 2015, and the same amount of time has passed since its fictional incarnation. At this point, Mars exploration looks quite different than it did in The Martian, with many new discoveries and much debate.

As a planetary geologist working on NASA’s Mars missions, I closely follow the science and policy in this area. In 2010, the U.S. National Space Policy set goals for human missions to Mars in the 2030s. However, in 2017, the White House Space Policy Directive 1 shifted NASA’s focus to returning to the Moon through the Artemis program.

While the idea of manned missions to Mars has gained popularity, NASA’s actual plans to land humans on Mars remain unstable. Notably, over the past 10 years, it has been robotic missions, not manned ones, that have advanced discovery and expanded the human imagination.