The dramatic increase in life expectancy seen in the first half of the 20th century will not happen again, according to researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, and the French Institute for Demographic Research. The work is published in the prestigious scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Scientists analyzed mortality data from 23 high-income, low-mortality countries. They showed that generations born after 1939 will not reach the age of 100 on average. If at the beginning of the 20th century, life expectancy increased by five and a half months with each new generation, then after 1939 – by only two and a half to three and a half months.
The authors emphasize that the greatest successes of the past were associated with a sharp decrease in child mortality due to medicine and improved living conditions. Now child mortality is already extremely low, and improvements in older age groups are not able to provide the same jump in longevity.
However, the researchers note that predictions cannot be completely accurate. Unexpected events such as pandemics, new medical technologies or social changes can change the trajectory of future life expectancy.
