By June, extreme climate events topped $100B in damages, shattering US marks.

The initial six months of 2025 documented the costliest severe weather occurrences in the U.S. ever. (Image credit: NOAA; Justin Sullivan via Getty Images; NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Information indicates the first part of 2025 contained the most costly severe weather on record in the U.S., even after adjusting for price increases.

A few notable incidents, like the Los Angeles wildfires, are partly to blame for this. However, Paul Ullrich, a professor specializing in regional climate modeling at the University of California, Davis, stated to Live Science that the frequency of natural catastrophes this winter was also “remarkable.”

In total, insurance providers Munich Re, AON, and Gallagher Re estimate that the first half of the year likely sustained between $93 billion and $126 billion in damages, based on their half-year projections. This amount surpasses the former most costly first semester on record, which occurred in 2023 and totaled $57 billion (adjusted for inflation), according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

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This is reflective of a more general pattern. Because of shifts in climate and alterations in land utilization, natural climate events have grown more recurrent and destructive in recent decades, and this pattern is anticipated to persist.

“If planetary warming remains on its current path, we should anticipate increased severity and occurrence of extreme weather events,” Kristina Dahl, a climate scientist and the VP of science at Climate Central, conveyed to Live Science via email. “Pair this with our inclination to construct dwellings in regions susceptible to climate-related perils — consider the intensely populated coastline along Florida’s hurricane-vulnerable shore or quaint Californian communities situated close to vulnerable forests — and it is reasonable to foresee a continuous escalation in the financial repercussions of such events.”

To this point, improvements in weather forecasting and the use of early alert platforms that aid in the eviction of inhabitants from hazardous regions, experts note, have helped prevent a spike in casualty figures caused by these climate events. However, escalating climate change may alter this, as a few disasters are forecasted to proliferate in portions of the U.S., such as flooding and regional heat waves, potentially making them more challenging for people to evade.

The Palisade and Eaton fires swept through properties of significant value in Los Angeles, adding to the historic prices. A historic winter

The Los Angeles wildfires, which happened this winter, were a primary reason for the damage caused by natural disasters in 2025. Zhiyun Li, an economic expert on climate at UCLA, mentioned in an email to Live Science that wildfires in January destroyed primarily “high-end single-family homes” located in Pacific Palisades and Eaton Canyon. Collectively, they constitute the most financially devastating wildfires in U.S. and global history.

According to evaluations made by insurance organizations Gallagher Re, Munich Re, and AON, the total damage, factoring in immediate damages such as property harm, varies from $53 billion to $65 billion. Other projections, which consider property damage, rebuilding expenditures, capital losses stemming from impacts on gross domestic product (GDP), and sometimes healthcare and relocation expenses along with other elements, fall between $76 billion and $275 billion.

According to NOAA projections, the total damage caused by California’s 2018 wildfire season, the costliest to date, came in at $30 billion (adjusted for inflation), for comparison.

The LA fires were exceptionally destructive due to their rapid escalation, which was a result of intense Santa Ana winds, remarkably arid circumstances, and overgrown vegetation from previous wet spells, which then experienced a rapid desiccation.

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“It could be described as a cascade of unfortunate circumstances culminating in catastrophic events in January,” Daniel Swain, a climate researcher at UCLA, disclosed to Live Science.

Moreover, in contrast to most previous wildfires, these conflagrations impacted densely populated urban areas with significant property values.

Apart from the wildfires in California, the U.S. has experienced a high incidence of other severe weather phenomena, particularly tornadoes. AON reports that two tornado occurrences, one in March and the other in May, resulted in at least $8 billion in insured losses each. This year, floods and winter conditions have also been the cause of substantial damage.

These occurrences have contributed to an extraordinarily costly first semester.

A financially draining year is anticipated

Should hurricane season be severe, 2025 could turn out to be the most costly on record in terms of destruction due to extreme weather.

According to NOAA data, the most costly and deadly weather occurrences in the U.S. are hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season has remained relatively calm thus far; however, it extends until November, and experts project a season with above-average activity.

Since 1980, tropical cyclones have been responsible for over $1.5 trillion in damages in the U.S. (adjusted for inflation) – more than all other forms of extreme occurrences combined – and have caused 7,211 deaths, which is more than all other types of extreme weather events, according to NOAA data.

Hurricanes’ propensity to make landfall in areas of heavy construction is one factor contributing to their potential for devastation. “The coast against the ocean is among the most desired places for building new homes and places to live,” remarked Stephen Strader, an associate professor in geography and the environment at Villanova University. He told Live Science that “it’s beautiful 99.9% of the time, until the hurricane comes knocking, and you end up with a lot of people in very highly exposed areas.”

Due to governmental cutbacks, NOAA no longer publishes data on weather disasters costing billions of dollars. However, if the second semester is consistent with the average figures over the last five years for the months of July to December, it is estimated that the year’s total damage could be approximately $220 billion. This estimate anticipates $110 billion in damages between January and June and an additional $110 billion in damages between July and December.

To produce this figure, Live Science aggregated evaluations of the first semester of 2025 sourced from Gallagher Re, AON, and Munich Re — which NOAA had priorly confirmed to be comparable to its own projections — and averaged those with NOAA estimates of average damage outlays from July through December between 2019 and 2024.

Climate change impact

The devastation resulting from natural disasters has increased considerably in recent decades.

NOAA data indicates that in 1980, only three occurrences resulted in damage exceeding $1 billion, accounting for inflation, and the 1980s in their entirety noted 33 similar catastrophes. By comparison, 2024 on its own documented 27 incidents reaching the billion-dollar threshold after factoring in inflation, and the 2020s have seen 115 disasters so far that caused at least $1 billion in damages, before this year is taken into account.

“It seems that there’s an increasing trend every year, and it’s only getting bigger and bigger,” said Strader.

Human-caused climate change is a significant contributor to this pattern, as it is increasing the probability and intensity of severe weather occurrences.

“We’re simply going to experience more severe storms,” Ullrich conveyed. “As they make landfall, they will intensify more rapidly, and you will see larger storm surges, which will affect coastal infrastructure.”

“Any type of severe storm, specifically those that produce considerable rainfall, are made worse by climate change. This happens because warmer atmospheric conditions produce more precipitation,” Ullrich said.

This effect was observed during the Texas flash floods in July, when a significant storm deposited almost a foot (30 centimeters) of water across the Texas Hill Country in mere hours, leading the Guadalupe River to elevate by more than 26 feet (8 meters) and overwhelm its riverbanks.

Climate Central projects that flood losses will increase by as much as 147% in Louisiana and 74% in Florida in 2050 as compared to 2020 losses. Climate Central determined that the bulk of this rise will be triggered by climate change.

But storms are not the only phenomena amplified by climate change. “We understand that climate change is elevating the frequency and severity of fire weather — those hot, arid, windy circumstances that are highly conducive to the spread of flames,” Dahl said.

Research suggests that the quick shifts between humid and arid conditions that enabled the LA conflagrations may also be worsening as a result of climate change.

Overall, “There’s substantial and overwhelming confirmation that climate change is escalating the severity and likelihood of intense fire weather conditions in the American West,” Swain stated to Live Science.

In July, after heavy rainfall induced the Guadalupe River to breach its banks, severe flash floods caused the loss of 135 lives. Spreading Target

Changes in the way land is used also play a role in the increased degree of damage caused by natural disasters.

“In the world, we’re essentially dealing with a two-pronged crisis. Our climate is changing, resulting in more severe extreme weather,” commented Strader. He added that as the population of the U.S. and the planet increases, so does our vulnerability.

The expansion of urban areas is one aspect that increases the degree of devastation caused by natural catastrophes. The urban area in the U.S. expanded from 2.2% in 1982 and barely 0.8% in 1949 to 3.3% in 2017. There has also been an increase in population density, with the urban populace jumping from 167 million in 1980 to 249 million in 2010.

This implies that there’s more construction and infrastructure to be destroyed, weather phenomena are more probable to strike urban areas, and more people are touched whenever these areas are impacted. Experts have identified this pattern as the “spreading target effect.”

Strader noted that the expanding target effect creates a particular risk for tornadoes.

“We aren’t actually seeing changes in the frequency of tornadoes,” and these tornadoes are not gaining strength, Strader communicated. He noted that instead, tornadoes are causing more damage today as a result of amplified construction of houses and infrastructure in regions prone to tornadoes.

In addition, we’re altering land in ways that elevate the likelihood of some disasters. For instance, substituting open space with roads may worsen flooding.

“If we’ve altered the environment to include more pavement instead of open areas where water can infiltrate, then we might have amplified the hazard of urban flooding, even if the precipitation has stayed the same and the size of the city hasn’t changed,” Swain said.

Our actions have also made the dangers of wildfires more severe. Small, low-intensity fires once regularly removed brush and aided in the regeneration of the American West’s forests. But after a century of fire prevention efforts, the wilderness has become overgrown. “There’s a deficiency of naturally occurring, beneficial fires,” Swain noted. This results in a considerable accumulation of fuel for wildfires, which causes them to burn hotter, grow larger, and be more destructive whenever they occur, according to Swain.

Fatalities versus damage

Even though natural disasters are becoming increasingly frequent and destructive, the casualty rate has not increased. Experts say that the primary factor is the progress made in warning systems and forecasting, which helps people get to safety in time.

However, worsening climate change may thwart forecasting’s ability to prevent an increase in fatalities.

“I’m most concerned about heat and flooding as the two biggest [disaster types],” Strader shared. He added that “when we experience very extreme heat waves, it touches a huge fraction of the nation, and it’s difficult to escape the heat, particularly if you’re vulnerable or lack resources,” emphasizing that minority groups are particularly affected.

Cities can change into “concrete ovens” — and while such extreme weather occurrences do not necessarily induce major infrastructural damage, they may be as lethal as a significant hurricane or wildfire. As an example, a heat wave that swept through the Midwest in September 1995 was responsible for 872 fatalities and $2 billion in damage, adjusted for inflation, according to NOAA. However, Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the second-most-destructive extreme event to date, hit Texas and Louisiana and caused $160 billion in damage adjusted for inflation and only 89 deaths.

And experts have stated that government policies could potentially drive more deaths in the near term.