The remarkably slow pace of Tropical Storm Melissa means it could maintain this sluggish movement even as it gains strength in the coming days. (Image credit: CIRA/NOAA)
After traversing the heart of the Caribbean Sea and lingering in an almost motionless state this week, Tropical Storm Melissa is presently situated about 160 miles (260 kilometers) to the southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and is inching southeastward at a speed of 1 mph (1.6 km/h).
The storm’s puzzlingly deliberate progression, anticipated to remain slower than the typical walking pace of an individual, hovering around 2 mph (3.2 km/h) throughout the weekend, could spell disaster for several Caribbean islands, authorities caution.
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Melissa is projected to deliver between 8 and 14 inches (20 to 35 centimeters) of rainfall to sections of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through Sunday evening (Oct. 26), with the potential for localized higher quantities, according to an updated report from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 8 a.m. ET today (Oct. 24).
“Substantial and potentially lethal flash flooding and numerous landslides are anticipated in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides forecast in southern Haiti,” representatives stated. “Throughout the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches [8 to 13 cm] are expected through Sunday night. The degree of flooding could rise in western Jamaica during the subsequent week.”
Experts anticipate the storm to quickly strengthen into a significant Category 3 or higher hurricane throughout the weekend, fueled by unseasonably warm Caribbean waters, yet the storm will probably continue its extremely gradual movement, CNN reported.
Melissa marks the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The precise reason for its stall is ambiguous, but a confluence of potent upper-level winds and other inhibiting conditions across weather systems may be responsible, according to CNN. For instance, the absence of a cold front — a mass of cold air that displaces warmer air upward, inducing the release of energy and creating turbulent weather — might offer a partial justification for Melissa’s sluggishness.
Tropical Storm Melissa is presently situated around 160 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, yet the storm’s center is exhibiting movement.
However, Melissa’s protracted speed is not as atypical nowadays as it would have been several decades ago. Studies point toward tropical storms decelerating, notably as they draw nearer to land. For example, a 2018 study determined that, on a global scale, tropical storms had reduced their speed by 10% between 1949 and 2016 — and James Kossin, the study’s originator, tentatively associated this phenomenon with human-induced global warming.
“The degree of deceleration fluctuates substantially by region and by latitude, but generally aligns with the anticipated alterations in atmospheric circulation influenced by anthropogenic emissions,” Kossin, an atmospheric scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Center for Weather and Climate and at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, penned in the study.
In a subsequent investigation issued in 2019, Kossin and an associate revealed that tropical storms in the North Atlantic had grown more inclined to “stall” in coastal zones, channeling increased rainfall to those locations. The researchers linked this observation to both diminished moving velocities and abrupt directional shifts, pointing out that tropical storms now devote numerous hours simply hovering, a behavior currently exhibited by Melissa.
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Their conclusions are reinforced by more contemporary research featured in the journal PNAS, which disclosed that the average lifespan of tropical cyclones has elongated over the preceding 300 years. Moreover, a 2020 investigation ascertained that prospective climate change will prolong the duration of tropical storms, especially in the midlatitudes.
The challenge with sluggish tropical storms is their capability to unleash voluminous amounts of rain on particular locales, instigating ruinous floods and mudslides. An instance of this was Hurricane Harvey’s “stall” over Texas in 2017, which brought about the highest cumulative rainfall from a tropical cyclone in U.S. annals, as reported by CNN.
Sascha PareSocial Links NavigationStaff writer
Sascha, situated in the U.K., holds the role of staff writer at Live Science. She earned a bachelor’s degree in biology from the University of Southampton in England and a master’s degree in science communication from Imperial College London. Her writing has been showcased in The Guardian and the health-focused website Zoe. In addition to her writing pursuits, she finds joy in playing tennis, baking bread, and discovering unique treasures in second-hand shops.
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