McDougall stresses that if left unchecked, climate change could destabilise society, leading to wealthy individuals taking control. (Photo by JMGehrke/Getty Images)
Climate change is increasingly recognized not only as an environmental problem, but also as a threat-intensifying factor that exacerbates political and economic tensions around the world. Two key aspects – water scarcity and mass migration – have the potential to fundamentally change the dynamics of global conflicts.
In the absence of concerted global action, these pressures could trigger a vicious cycle of interconnected problems: disruption of livelihoods, unprecedented unrest and political violence, mass migration, and worsening border conflicts.
Topher McDougall is Professor of Economic Development and Peacebuilding at the Kroc School of Peace Studies at the University of San Diego, where he oversees the master's programs in Peace and Justice and Humanitarian Action.
The world is interconnected. Changes in one area will affect another. Fresh water is a vital resource that everyone needs to survive, and as it becomes depleted, conflicts can arise. At the same time, rising sea levels and sharp increases in temperatures will make many cities and large tracts of land uninhabitable. Together, these human-induced changes will lead to large-scale displacement of people to countries that are anxious to protect their resources.
In response to these threats, governments will likely resort to more sophisticated military technology to protect their citizens, while becoming more isolated. Once capitalism is threatened with collapse, social divisions will increase, and countries, corporations, or even the super-rich may begin to address climate change in ways that benefit them, potentially at the expense of others.
Water shortage
The first civilizations arose along fertile river valleys such as the Nile, Tigris, Euphrates and Indus. Today, upstream states increasingly control the water that downstream populations depend on – and in a warming world, this could lead to explosive conflicts.
Iraq is a case in point: once-fertile agricultural areas around Basra are becoming increasingly barren due to Turkish dams upstream and accelerating climate change. This shortage has increased tensions between different regions of Iraq, including the upstream Kurdistan Regional Government (which has proposed building 245 dams in the province), central Baghdad, and the southern population downstream near Basra.
Sourse: www.livescience.com
