A new study suggests what might happen if measles vaccination rates in the U.S. remain the same, increase, or decrease. (Image credit: Bilanol via Getty Images)
Measles was eliminated in the U.S. decades ago, but new modeling suggests millions of new measles cases could emerge across the country over the next 25 years if vaccination rates continue to decline.
In a study published Thursday (April 24) in JAMA, scientists predicted the number of measles cases that could occur in the coming decades if state-level vaccination rates remain stable, decrease, or increase. They found that if vaccination rates drop by 10%, the U.S. could see 11.1 million measles cases over the next 25 years.
If vaccination rates remain at current levels, 851,300 measles cases could occur over the same time period. In this scenario, the disease could “re-endemicize” in about two decades, meaning it could begin to spread consistently across the U.S. again.
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