A forceful explosion impacted Mount Etna on June 2nd, 2025.(Image credit: Salvatore Allegra/Anadolu via Getty Images)
A freshly discovered approach to observing magma’s course below Mount Etna could potentially assist scientists in anticipating its future detonations.
Mount Etna, which rests on the Italian isle of Sicily, represents the most sizable active volcano in Europe. Mortal beings have kept records of its behaviors throughout the last 2,700 years; however, the volcano’s history of eruptions spans as far back as 500,000 years.
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The innovative method could render it simpler to foresee Mount Etna’s explosions. In a recent study, researchers affiliated with Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) scrutinized a parameter referred to as the b value, which delineates the proportion of earthquakes with low magnitude relative to those of high magnitude in a certain terrain of Earth’s shell. This proportion has the capacity to transform as magma surges through the crust towards the summit of a volcano, the scientists declared in a piece released on October 8 within the Science Advances journal.
“Alterations in the b value across periods mirror the manner in which stress inside the volcano is growing,” stated Marco Firetto Carlino, the study’s principal author and a geophysicist stationed at INGV’s Etna Observatory, in an electronic communication with Live Science. “Seeing that magma ascent provokes modifications in stress contained within the crust, observing the b value may aid in exposing distinct phases of magma’s passage from profoundness to the plane.”
The b value constitutes a parameter recognized within volcanology; however, the researchers examined it through an original lens, utilizing a modernized statistical blueprint. By assembling 20 years’ worth of seismic data procured from Mount Etna, they uncovered an association deemed “very strong” existing between the b value and Etna’s volcanic behaviors, noted Firetto Carlino.
Mount Etna resides within the collision area involving the African and European tectonic plates. In consequence, a vertical rift within Earth’s crust, identified as a strike-slip fault, underlies the volcano, therefore assisting magma’s ascent toward the surface, as indicated within the study.
The crust positioned below Mount Etna extends up to 19 miles (30 km) in thickness. Magma ascends throughout this capacity ahead of an eruption; however, as opposed to refilling one solitary magma chamber, the molten substance nourishes an assortment of linked storage locations rooted in the crust at differing depths.
The most profound magma storage terrain sits 7 miles (11 km) distant from sea level, Firetto Carlino elucidated, further providing nourishment to an intermediary storage system with distinct zones, seemingly stretching 2 to 4 miles (3 to 7 km) below. With the ascent of magma, it transits through an intricate grid of rifts, eventually arriving at the last storage zone, located above sea level inside the volcano’s edifice.
Researchers benefited from substantial amounts of data to utilize and distill b values from, which was attributed to Etna’s persistent behaviors. They took account of seismic designs existing throughout the 19 miles of crust underlying the volcano from 2005 until 2024, specifically observing the manner in which these designs fluctuated amid crustal territories.
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On the whole, terrains of Earth’s covering that possess vigorous magma storage zones reveal greater b values as compared to more settled terrains, stemming from the active zones undergoing more limited earthquakes relative to larger ones.
“This manifests given that rocks touched by shifting magma grow feeble and exceedingly fissured,” indicated Firetto Carlino. “By way of instance, when magma inside a storage disperses volatiles, they suffuse the bordering rocks, thereby easing small fracture slippage.”
Conversely, terrains of Earth’s covering that exhibit enhanced stability commonly sustain greater magnitude earthquakes rather than smaller occurrences, considering it necessitates increased potency to shatter the rock. “Rocks retaining sound mechanical attributes bear the capacity to harbor stress over extended durations,” Firetto Carlino conveyed. “Upon their eventual fracturing, they yield amplified earthquakes, aligning with diminished b values.”
Hence, through observing the b value across time, it may prove achievable for investigators to monitor magma’s progression from the profound crust toward the initial storage zone, up from that point to the intermediary storage arrangement, and further upward towards the superficial storage zone. This approach has the capacity to assist specialists in approximating the timings encompassing eruptions emerging from Mount Etna.
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“Observing the b value presents a potent avenue for following magma’s transit within the crust and evaluating the volcano’s unfolding state prior to eruptions,” expressed Firetto Carlino.
Mount Etna offered a fitting examination ground for the study considering its stratified magma storage zones alongside its colossal seismic records; however, the outcomes might potentially translate to additional locales.
“In principle, the b value holds the capacity to serve in tracking magma migrations throughout diverse volcanic domains, granted an adequate tally of earthquakes becomes accessible and their localizations stretch across varied crustal sectors, neatly delimited by pre-existing geological analyses,” Firetto Carlino affirmed.
Sascha PareSocial Links NavigationStaff writer
Sascha functions as a U.K.-based staff writer at Live Science. She possesses a bachelor’s degree within biology originating from the University of Southampton situated in England, in addition to a master’s degree pertaining to science communication obtained from Imperial College London. Her labor has materialized in publications such as The Guardian and the health platform known as Zoe. Beyond composing articles, she appreciates pursuits like tennis, constructing bread, and perusing second-hand stores in search of concealed treasures.
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