Super Typhoon Ragasa, photographed from the International Space Station by JAXA astronaut Kimiya Yui. (Photo: Kimiya Yui/X/@Astro_Kimiya)
China's southern metropolises have entered emergency lockdowns in preparation for the impact of a giant “super typhoon” forecast to make landfall on Wednesday (September 24).
Super Typhoon Ragasa, the world's most powerful tropical cyclone this year, has already battered Taiwan and the northern Philippines with torrential rain and damaging winds of up to 177 mph (285 kph), equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane, leaving at least five people dead and dozens missing, officials say.
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The typhoon is expected to hit Guangdong Province on Wednesday. More than 770,000 people have been evacuated from Guangdong alone so far, and by the end of today (September 23), that number is expected to exceed one million, according to state broadcaster China Central Television.
“Ragasa poses a serious threat to Hong Kong and could reach the level of Hato in 2017 and Mangkhut in 2018,” Chief Secretary Eric Chan said on Monday (September 22), referring to two previous super typhoons that caused billions of dollars in damage. (A typhoon is considered a “super typhoon” if its wind speed reaches 115 mph (185 km/h).)
Hurricanes and typhoons are tropical storms that form from a thin layer of ocean water evaporated by wind. This moisture rises, forming thunderclouds. The warmer the ocean, the more energy the system receives, accelerating the formation process and allowing powerful storms to quickly develop.
This is why the storm season runs from June to November, and the strongest storms typically occur between August and September, when ocean temperatures peak.
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Ragasa's extreme intensity has led some to claim that this storm is close to Earth's upper limit. There's some truth to this: current calculations place the storm's maximum potential intensity at approximately 322 km/h (200 mph).
This estimate is made using a fairly simple formula that balances the storm's kinetic energy lost through surface friction with the energy it extracts from the warm ocean water.
However, climate change is raising the bar, and scientists are finding that it has already significantly increased the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons compared to the 1980s. Since March 2023, average sea surface temperatures worldwide have reached record highs, adding additional strength to storms.
Fortunately, Ragasa's strength will weaken somewhat before the storm makes landfall. The typhoon is expected to weaken to a Category 3 hurricane with winds of approximately 185 km/h (115 mph) before making landfall between Shenzhen and Xuwen County in Guangdong Province, according to China's National Meteorological Center.
Ben Turner, Social Links, Navigation, Acting News Editor
Ben Turner is a British writer and editor at Live Science magazine. He covers physics and astronomy, technology, and climate change. He graduated from University College London with a degree in particle physics and later became a journalist. When not writing, Ben enjoys reading literature, playing guitar, and embarrassing himself at chess.
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